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Analysts' Notes

2-5 page Notes on key Telco 2.0™ Topics. Please see below for current content, and for future content please see here.

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  Apps & Telco APIs 2.0: their role vs Facebook, Skype, and iMessage
Many popular communications apps such as Facebook, Skype and iMessage bypass telcos’ core networks by going ‘over the top’. Yet smartphone apps, and in future HTML5 web apps, also present new distribution opportunities for telco services including voice, messaging, and payments, as long as developers are motivated to use telco APIs. How should telcos approach the 'App Economy' to best defend existing revenues and develop new opportunities? (August 2011, Executive Briefing Service)

Apps & Telco APIs Figure 1 Drivers of the App Market Telco 2.0 Sept 2011
  Broadband 2.0: Mobile CDNs and video distribution
Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) are becoming familiar in the fixed broadband world as a means to improve the experience and reduce the costs of delivering bulky data like online video to end-users. Is there now a compelling need for their mobile equivalents, and if so, should operators partner with existing players or build / buy their own? (August 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream).

Telco 2.0 Six Key Opportunity Types Chart July 2011
  Facebook: really 'worth' $30 billion max - $100 billion is hype
Our maximum valuation of Facebook is $30 billion despite some of the 'hype' suggesting $100 billion valuations. In any event, Facebook will be under enormous pressure to find new sources of growth making further moves into telecommunications likely. See why in this extract previewing our next Strategy Report on 'Internet disruptors' covering Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Skype, and strategies for 'co-opetition' with them. (August 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream.

Telco 2.0 Facebook Revenue per user forecast Aug 2011
  RIM: R.I.P. or ‘Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated’?
RIM’s shares have plummeted in value over the last four months, prompting an eruption of finger-pointing in the media and speculation of its demise or acquisition. In this analysis we examine whether the doom-mongers are right and what RIM’s recovery strategy might be. (July 2011, Executive Briefing Service)

Apple iCloud logo in analysis of impact of iCloud/iOS on digital ecosystem
  Cloud 2.0: Telcos to grow Revenues 900% by 2014

Telcos should grow Cloud Services revenues nine-fold and triple their overall market share in the next three years according to delegates at the May 2011 EMEA Executive Brainstorm. But which are the best opportunities and strategies? (June 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Cloud & Enterprise ICT Stream)

 Cloud Forecast 2014
  Mobile Broadband Economics: LTE 'Not Enough'
Innovation appears to be flourishing in mobile broadband. At the Telco 2.0 EMEA Executive Brainstorm earlier this month we saw working applications that enable a.) users to monitor and control their network usage and services and b.) operators to support 'dynamic pricing'. Despite growing enthusiasm for LTE, delegates considered offloading traffic and network sharing strategies as at least as effective in managing costs. (May 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream) Mobile Broadband Fuel Gauge
  Telco 2.0 Strategy: New Growth needs New Metrics
‘What gets measured gets done’, and telcos need to use new metrics to uncover and develop new sources of value. They also need to make WAC a ‘JFDI’ initiative. These and other top level Telco 2.0 strategic themes from the May 2011 EMEA Telco 2.0 Executive Brainstorm. (May 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Transformation Stream.) Broadband Wholesale Forecast
  LTE & Wholesale: Time to Get Aggressive?
We examine four examples of the growing trend of wholesale-oriented LTE operations, their key challenges and opportunities, and recommend that incumbent operators should be more aggressive in wholesale. (May 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream). Broadband Wholesale Forecast
  New Business Models: Half Future Telco Growth
Senior industry executives in Palo Alto at the 12th Telco 2.0 Executive Brainstorm agreed that half of the telco growth available in the next 3 years would come from the new business model opportunities identified in the ‘Roadmap to new Telco 2.0 Business Models’ report. The other half would come from improvements to the current business model. Headline findings in brief. (April 2011, Executive Briefing Service) Americas - 6 Opportunities Vote
  Public Wifi: Destroying LTE/Mobile Value?
By building or acquiring Public WiFi networks for tens of $Ms, highly innovative fixed players in the UK are stealthily removing $Bns of value from 3G and 4G mobile spectrum as smartphone and other data devices become increasingly carrier agnostic. What are the lessons globally? (April 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream).

  Appstore 2.0: Amazon Vs Apple & Google
Amazon is probably the Internet's best retailer. As it launches its own AppStore, we provide a detailed analysis of its digital media business and pick out the key opportunities it offers to content owners, network service providers and manufacturers. (March 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream).

  Arete Research: Getting to a Billion Smartphones in 2013
Smartphones have already transformed the device market but are growth predictions vastly underestimated? Arete Research explain how smartphones growth will mirror that of low cost handsets and reach a billion by 2013. (March 2011, Executive Briefing Service)

  iPad2: how Apple plans to dominate the ‘post PC era’
Apple’s new ‘PC-killer’ tablet is intended to significantly expand the Apple ecosystem, with long-term impacts on many players including telcos, giving Apple an even stronger hold on the market. What strategies should telcos adopt? (March 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream).
  YouTube: Recent improvements could change the game (again)
YouTube’s recent improvements to its business model and balance sheet make it much more attractive to content owners. In this article we explain these developments and examine the wider implications for all players the market. (March 2011, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream)
  Digital Entertainment 2.0: Telcos risk missing the UltraViolet online video opportunity
2011 sees the introduction of the UltraViolet digital locker platform by DECE, a consortium led by 6 of the 7 top Hollywood studios and backed by 50 cross-industry heavyweights, to support the transition of film and TV to online distribution. What opportunities will telcos miss if they fail to engage? (March 2011, Executive Briefing Service)
  Mobile World Congress: Microsoft CEO fails to land all punches, but...
Microsoft's pugilistic CEO Steve Ballmer came out fighting at the 2011 GSMA Mobile World Congress, but failed to register a convincing win. Is this the start of the old software champ's great comeback in mobile, or is the only way down? Our hunch may surprise you. (February, 2011, Executive Briefing Service)
  Augmented Reality: Is there a valuable role for telcos?
An introduction to Augmented Reality (AR) including: key industry players; latest developments; and the AR ecosystem. The key strategic question is what role should telcos play? Three possible roles are outlined. (February 2011, Executive Briefing Service)
  M2M 2.0: New Approaches Needed
The M2M market structure is evolving rapidly and new roles and requirements are emerging that are unaligned with much current telco practice. What must telcos do to avoid missing out and potentially inhibiting the market overall? (Jan 2011, Executive Briefing Service)
  Cloud 2.0: What are the Telco Opportunities?
Telco 2.0’s analysis of operators’ potential role and opportunity in ‘Cloud Services’, a set of new business model opportunities that are still in an early stage of development - although players such as Amazon have already blazed a substantial trail. (December 2010, , Executive Briefing Service, Cloud & Enterprise ICT Stream & Foundation 2.0)
  Cloud Services 2.0: Clearing Fog, Sunshine Forecast, say Telco 2.0 Delegates
The early stage of development of the market means there is some confusion on the telco Cloud opportunity, yet clarity is starting to emerge, and the concept of ‘Network-as-a-Service’ found particular favour with Telco 2.0 delegates at our recent Brainstorms. (December 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Cloud & Enterprise ICT Stream)
  $Multi-Billion Telco 2.0 Growth Opportunities in North America: Can Telcos Act in Time?
An initial summary of the key out-takes from the 10th Telco 2.0 Americas Executive Brainstorm (incorporating Digital Entertainment 2.0) held in Santa Monica, Los Angeles, October 28-29, 2010. 92% of participants agreed it is time to make either a step change in key functions (34%) or initiate a fundamental transformation (58%) in the next 12-18 months. (November 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Transformation Stream.)
  Customer Data 2.0: Telcos Must Vie for a slice of the $Multi-Billion ‘PIE’
Facebook, Google and others are pioneering the creation of the Personal Information Economy (PIE) based on consumer/user data. We outline emerging participants’ roles, and why, where and how telcos could and should play. (October 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream)
  Facebook: Moving into Telco Space?
Telco 2.0’s analysis of Facebook’s business model shows that the social networking giant may need to turn to communications for much needed new revenues. (October 2010, Executive Briefing Service)
  Aligning M2M with Telco 2.0 Strategies
A review of Telenor, Jasper Wireless and KPN’s approaches to M2M, examining how M2M strategy needs to fit with an operators’ future broadband business model strategy. (October 2010, Foundation 2.0)
  Net Neutrality 2.0: Don't Block the Pipe, Lubricate the Market
‘Net Neutrality’ has gathered increasing momentum as a market issue, with AT&T, Verizon, major European telcos and Google and others all making their points in advance of the Ofcom, EC, and FCC consultation processes. This is Telco 2.0’s input, analysis and recommendations. (Sept 2010, Foundation 2.0, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream).
  Vodafone 360 on Android, iTunes: Now Getting it Right?
Vodafone 360 was meant to be a new, social-network centred approach to managing the customer interface. Unfortunately, it was also bug-ridden and dogged by a lack of clarity of purpose. Now, its availability on Android Market and iTunes may create a strategic opportunity for Vodafone to access more customers. (August 2010, Executive Briefing Service)
  Mobile Devices: Fight Club
The device market has been transformed by smartphones and tablets but who do institutional investors see as the winners and losers? From our Partners at Arete Research
  Is Ribbit worth $105m to BT yet?
How is the strategic rationale for BT’s acquisition of Ribbit as their ‘Voice 2.0’ platform working out? We spoke with Crick Waters, Ribbit's co-founder and EVP. (July 2010)
  Future Broadband: “Happy Pipes": worth $416Bn by 2020?
The worldwide broadband access market has the potential to grow to $416bn by 2020, if operators embrace the “Happy Pipe” concept. Headline forecasts and analysis from the Telco 2.0 Strategy Report “Mobile, Fixed and Wholesale Broadband Business Models: Best Practice Innovation, ‘Telco 2.0' Opportunities, Forecasts and Future Scenarios”. (June 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Future Networks Stream)
  New Telco Growth: is Time Running Out?
At a time when telcos are being re-rated as quasi utilities by investors, the importance of creating sophisticated and effective strategies for new growth is becoming ever more pressing. But the recent Telco 2.0 ‘Executive Brainstorm’ demonstrated that the clock is ticking fast and the opportunity could slip away from Telcos as nimbler competitors from adjacent industries take the value. (June 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Transformation Stream.)
  Optimising Mobile Broadband Economics: Key Issues and Next Steps
The Executive Summary and extract from a report on key issues for operators seeking to optimise mobile broadband network economics which were debated at the recent Telco 2.0 EMEA Brainstorm in London. (Special Briefing, May 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream).
  LTE: 'Longer Term Enthusiasm'?
A typically pithy summary of the recent well-attended LTE World Summit in Amsterdam by Dean Bubley, co-author of the Telco 2.0 'New Mobile, Fixed and Wholesale Broadband Models' Strategy Report, founder of Disruptive Analysis, and long time Telco 2.0 Associate. (May 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream).
  Telco 2.0 in Hollywood: ‘There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills’
'Hollywood' and Telecoms are eyeing the prospects of making (more) money from online video distribution. But how should they develop their strategies, and can they collaborate for greater mutual benefit? An initial report from the 1st Hollywood-Telco International Executive Brainstorm held in Los Angeles on 5th May. (May 2010, Executive Briefing Service)
  Enterprise 2.0: Machine-to-machine - opening for business
Machine-To-Machine (M2M) appears to be finally coming of age and 'horizontal' / 'two-sided' business models look to be a key part of an effective growth strategy for operators. A Telco 2.0 summary and analysis of leading-edge progress, including an advanced case study from Telenor Objects, and new research from Intel, Ericsson and SAP, presented at the 9th Telco 2.0 Executive Brainstorm. (April 2010)
  The 7 Top Themes of Telco 2.0, Spring 2010
There was a lot of brainpower, energy and great debate at last week’s Executive Brainstorm. Here’s our top level take of emerging themes on: M2M; Bloated Broadband Economics; Google, Apple and Facebook; Leveraging Consumer Data; The Capital Markets; Smartphones and Apps; and the ‘Roadmap’ for Change. (May 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Transformation Stream.)
  The Impact of Netflix: Can Telcos Help Hollywood?
As Apple’s business model transformed digital music, the success of Netflix’s subscription business model is changing the dynamics of the Film and TV industry. We examine how telcos can help Hollywood with online distribution to survive and thrive in these turbulent times. (April 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream)
  Enterprise Voice 2.0: Ecosystem, Species and Strategies
Analysis of the structure of the Enterprise Voice 2.0 market ecosystem, the business models and value networks within it, and conclusions as to what operators can do in order to benefit from it. (April 2010, Executive Briefing Service)
  RIM: how does the BlackBerry fit with Telco 2.0 strategies?
Our analysis of how RIM’s BlackBerry business model may offer operators interesting near term opportunities to manage smartphone data traffic costs, and partner with to exploit future ‘Telco 2.0’ opportunities. (March 2010, Executive Briefing Service)
  Digital Hollywood: How to 'Out-Apple' Apple?
Apple is becoming an increasingly important distributor of Film and TV content online. But plans to sell films at $0.99 could cause massive disruption to the business models of the major studios. Telcos could offer a powerful alternative, not just as a retail channel but as an enabler of richer, more profitable interactions with consumers. (March 2010, Executive Briefing Service)
  Mobile & Fixed Broadband Business Models: Four Strategy Scenarios
An introduction to the four strategy scenarios we see playing out in the market - 'Telco 2.0 Player', 'Happy Piper', 'Device Specialist', and 'Government Department' – part of a major new report looking at innovation in mobile and fixed broadband business models. (March 2010, Foundation 2.0, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream).
  Apple vs. Nokia: strategic lessons from the Smartphone / Appstore Wars
In the last quarter of 2009, Apple made more money from smartphones and applications than the formerly dominant Nokia. The contrast between their approaches to developer communities reveals important lessons in the design and management of ‘two-sided’ business model ecosystems. (March 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream)
  Telecoms 2015: New Game, New Players, but Who Wins?
The connected ‘digital economy’, underpinned by telecoms, is evolving fast. How will it play out in the next 5 years, what are the rules, and who will win? Telco 2.0 analyses some new scenario thinking by IBM and clarifies the key issues that need to be addressed.(March 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Transformation Stream.)
  Consumer Data and Privacy 2.0: Give Customers the Power

What do consumers really want from their data? And how should telcos go about meeting these needs for a profit? The answer is simple: give customers the power. An extract from our report on the recent Privacy 2.0 Summit. (February, 2010, Executive Briefing Service)

  How Google's Chief Magician Stole the Show
In his keynote address at Mobile World Congress, Dr. Eric Schmidt, Google's CEO, told the telecoms industry exactly which parts of their lunch Google will eat, while simultaneously appeared to offer peace. Our analysis of what he said and didn't say. (Feb 2010)
  Apple iPad: Business Model Analysis
Summary: What is the true significance of the iPad? A 'solution in search of a problem' or a ‘revolution in a tablet’? An analysis of Apple's strategy and business model, as it relates to digital publishing and the dangers for telcos. (February 2010, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream)
  2009 Review: Telco 2.0 Readers' Top 10 Articles
Accelerating development in 'two-sided' business telecoms models, all things Google, and the growing challenges for Mobile Broadband were the big themes in 2009 among our readers. (December 2009)
  New Opportunities in Online Content Distribution
As part of our new 'Broadband End-Games' report, we’ve been defining in detail the opportunities for telcos to distribute 3rd party content and digital goods in new ways. (December 2009, Executive Briefing Service, Future of the Networks Stream).
  Telenor’s Voice 2.0 Strategy: ‘Mobilt Bedriftsnett’ Case Study
Telenor’s new ‘Mobile Business Network’ integrates SME’s mobile and fixed phone systems via managed APIs, providing added functionality and delivering greater business efficiency. It uses a ‘two-sided’ business model strategy and targets the market via developers. (December 2009, Executive Briefing Service)
  'Demolition Derby' for Smartphones in 2010
'Hyper-competition' in the mobile handset market, particularly in 'smartphones', will drive growth in 2010, but also emaciate profits for the majority of manufacturers. Predicted winners, losers and other consequences from Telco 2.0 partners Arete Research. (December 2009, Executive Briefing Service)
  Shareholder Value 2.0: Investors now rating telcos as ‘utilities’. How to respond?
Financial markets now value Telco stocks for stability and Techs for growth. Telcos must deliver on efficiency promises to earn support for growth. Technology companies must prove staying power. How can business model innovation help all parties? (November 2009, Executive Briefing Service, Transformation Stream.)
  ITU World 2009: Telecoms too important to leave to Telcos?
Government imperatives around economic growth, climate change, healthcare and education may be superseding concerns about "the market". Telcos may face a future in which they are smaller fish in a larger ‘ICT' sea. (November 2009, Executive Briefing Service)
  Amazon 2.0: Four Levels of Strategic Business Model Transformation
Amazon's stock continues to beat the bull market. Its success is based on a four level transformation to a ‘two-sided' strategy. What are the lessons for would-be platform players, including fledgling ‘Telco2.0s' and software platform owners? (November 2009, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream, Foundation 2.0)
  Mobile Software Platforms: Rapid Consolidation Forecast
New analysis by Telco 2.0 partners, Arete Research, suggests that only only three or four mobile handset software platforms will remain by 2012. (November 2009, Executive Briefing Service)
  Strategy 2.0: The $375 billion opportunity - update (Part 1)
In 2008 we identified a $375 billion opportunity for telecoms to help make media and other industries more efficient. We review the impact of broadband developments here. (October 2009, Executive Briefing Service, Transformation Stream)
  QQ: China's Monster 'Facebook' - on a screen near you soon
An analysis of QQ.com - a profitable Chinese social networking and instant messaging service with 1 billion usernames, 75 million peak concurrent users, and plans to grow beyond China. (October 2009, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream)
  Case Study: how to grow when your core market shrinks
Only the fit survive market changes, and evolving the business model to adapt is key. Strategy lessons for telcos and vendors alike from Boungiorno, a content aggregator that evolved to beat the shrinking portal services market. (October 2009, Executive Briefing Service)
  ESPN: Making ‘pay-for-content’ work – a telco opportunity
The sports network ESPN is a master of the paid content business model, building platform scale and success using premium content. What are the lessons from ESPN’s US and UK strategies for other service providers and content distributors? (September 2009, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream).
  Google Voice: one of the key battlegrounds for Telcos
Google Voice, managing Customer Data, and Location Services will be among the key battlegrounds where Telcos' emerging business models and Google are likely to clash, according to a new Telco 2.0 Briefing to be published in October. It is previewed here. (September 2009, Executive Briefing Service, Dealing with Disruption Stream)
  Vodafone business model: Increasingly ‘two-sided’
Vittorio Colao, CEO, presented his strategy last week at a Goldman Sachs investors conference. It appears highly aligned with Telco 2.0 principles, embracing new enablers for upstream customers, openness, and social networks. (September 2009, Executive Briefing Service)
  Orange / T-Mobile UK Merger: An Investor's View

Orange and T-Mobile UK are merging, thereby consolidating two of the UK's five mobile operators. What are the likely benefits and consequences, and the implications from an investor's viewpoint? A guest article from Telco 2.0 partners Arete Research. (September 2009, Executive Briefing Service) 

 
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